Ulysses tying himself to the mast seems to be rational at the first choice junction, choosing to tie himself to the mask over not tying himself, but not fully rational over the whole course of actions, since the sequence not tying → resisting sirens unembarassed would be even better than reaching ithaca embarassed.
Naieve approach;
- Assume any path through the decision tree is possible, so set off on whatever path is optimal given one’s present attitudes.
- This will lead to failure once his preferences/beliefs change.
- Results in not tying himself to the mast at the first junction, and likekly failing at the second junction where his preferences have changed.
Sophisticated approach
- Instead take into account the probabilities of outcomes at future junctions conditional on your predicted future attitudes.
- Results in tying to mast, since he foresees sailing past the island untied will be impossible for future-Ulysses.
Resolute approach
- Doesn’t differ from sophisticated in Ulysses case.
- Typically entails violating Independence axiom/sure-thing principle.
- In appropriate contexts, the agent should stick to the choice that was initially deemed best.
- It’s unclear what it would mean for an agent to choose against their current all-things considered preferences, since it seems like you can’t ever choose against your current all-things considered preferences.