Why cant any action like working on AI safety, be broken down into lots of low odds - high stakes sub actions, which are all pascals mugging at the margin? (Below is Alan Hajek 80k) - Pascals wager is invalid because believing in god is same EV as beliving in god iff a coin lands heads, or iff you win the lottery.
St petersburg gamble is strictly dominant to any finite truncated gamble of it, so it seems higher ev than any integer, yikes
Relative utility theory? Maximisation? Gives a lexical rule for deciding amongst infinite ev choices (which everything is if you dont give p0 to st petersburg etc.)
Problems with most similar world analysis of counterfactuals
- if trump or biden had one, the president would be a democrat. Seems false, since you should look at (some) trump worlds, but the closest is a biden world.
- if i were over 7 ft tall, horses would fly, theres no uniquely closest world, bc. Real numbers
- if i were at least 7ft tall, q, seems wrong to say this should be evaluated by looking at only the world(s) where im 7.000000000000… Ft tall.